My earlier post on the Trayvon Martin incident was rather throwaway (at least I warned you in the title). Even though other bloggers have done it to death (as it were), I decide to add my own thoughts.
Rather than rehash the entire timeline I will just lay out what I believe is the likelihood of various scenarios.
George Zimmerman Shot Trayvon Martin just because he was Black?
Approaching zero. It is possible but not very likely. It does not appear that anything in his history would point to hostility to Black people in general.
George Zimmerman ‘profiled’ Trayvon Martin because he was Black?
Unlikely. According to the 911 call it sounds as if Zimmerman, in the initial stages at least, is uncertain as to Trayvon Martin’s race. Despite the misrepresentation by ABC news, it is only later in the call that George Zimmerman uncertainly identifies Trayvon Martin as Black, and in response to the operator’s question regarding the race of the suspect.
George Zimmerman ‘profiled’ Trayvon Martin because of his hoodie?
Probable. The hoodie, and perhaps the apparent aimless movement (as people can do when on the phone while walking), probably contributed raising George Zimmerman’s suspicions. This is no worse than the profiling that others would run on a ‘wife-beater’ clad man in pickup truck with Confederate flag stickers. To some degree both are arbitrary and unfair, but suspicion is not accusation, and such profiles are probably no worse than other methods of catching potential trouble.
George Zimmerman practiced vigilante justice?
Certainly possible, but not highly probable. The neighborhood had suffered many break-ins and Zimmerman expresses frustration to the 911 operator: “…they always get away.” It is certainly possible that such frustration boiled over, but I am not sure any facts point to such conclusion; it is merely speculation.
Who started the fight?
Except for the fact that one of the participants is dead, we are into he-said-she-said territory. However, the fact that Martin was so close to the safety of his home when he turned to face Zimmerman points to some participation by Martin.
The shooting itself.
We have not heard (at least I have not heard) anything about the ballistics/forensics report. I would have guessed that study of the body could point to things such as proximity, angle that would help confirm or deny Zimmerman’s story (e.g., if the report pointed to a distance of a few feet rather than a few inches).
As others, such as Chuck Rudd (who has many posts on the incident leading to a post on the Daily Caller, congrats) and Steve Sailer, have said, this was likely a sorry tail of a confrontation escalating to a terrible conclusion: the sad collision of two lives that will happen in a country of 300 million persons.
While not exactly gourmet, I would like to think that this post could escape the “weak sauce” description. I was going to entitle it “Stronger Sauce,” but decided it is too easy to spoil a joke with a heavy hand.
IF my earlier post sounded a bit Sixty Minutes, then the title of this post is probably a bit Sherlock Holmes.