The Republican Primary

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Because I know everyone is waiting to hear what I think of the Republican presidential contenders, I present my rundown of the candidates.

I do not intend this as deep analysis, but more an off-the-top-of-my-head style ramble. Such analysis is probably as deep as most primary voters will give the question, so maybe lack of deep analysis does not matter.

Mitt Romney

Mr. Establishment. A steady-as-she-goes type. He may not be deeply conservative politically but his conservative temperament probably means he would not do too much damage. While he appears to have shifted positions according to the electorate he faced, I am willing to believe he would govern as per his more conservative recent promises. He is the perfect establishment candidate who would not rock the boat. If he fails to win the presidency he can always make a living playing one on TV, as he looks exactly like the casting office idea a president.

Newt Gingrich

If Romney is the candidate who never had an original idea his advisors did not give him, then Gingrich is the candidate full of ideas his advisors would wish he did not express. He is like one-man think tank, and that is where he should stay. Perhaps the eventual president could appoint him as efficiency czar where he can implement his latest gee-whiz idea on six sigma for government.

Jon Huntsman

He sounds more conservative than I expected given his diplomatic corps background and his “I believe in evolution and global warming, call me crazy” tweet (that tweet seemed like a NY Times approval seeking cheap shot to prove he was not one of those awful Tea Party types). He is another steady-as-she-goes, safe pair of hands type.

Rick Perry

With his verbal gaffes and Texas background, it is too easy to resurrect the nightmare that was George W. Bush. Perry is definitely conservative, but probably too much in thrall to the Chamber of Commerce wing of the Republican Party. He is probably better than his debate performances would imply (I heard an extended interview where he sounded ok) but that is setting the bar a bit too low. I had another point but …er… I cannot remember it. Oops! {You just knew I was going to use that tired old joke didn’t you?}

Rick Santorum

He is what your mother would call a nice young man. He seems earnest and pleasant enough. It is hard to dislike him; it is harder to imagine him as president.

Michele Bachmann

She appears to be solidly conservative. Even more than the standard Republican she seems sycophantically pro Israel and eager (at least very willing) go to war with Iran. When questioning the ability of women as leaders we can point to Margaret Thatcher; Bachman is no Thatcher.

Ron Paul

Last but surely not least. Much of the establishment hates him, the neo-cons hate him, the Republican Jewish Coalition did not want to debate him. If you can be judged by the friends you keep, you can also be judged by the enemies you acquire. On that basis alone Paul is worth a look. The problem is that while his support is strong, it is not necessarily deep. For candidates to win they must inspire support beyond their most enthusiastic base. Ron Paul supporters are probably the most eager and enthusiastic but Republicans still love the beat of the war drum. Paul supporters probably do not have a second choice and Ron Paul is probably not the second choice of many Republicans. I would love to see him win the nomination (I do not expect it) and love having him around if only for the angst he causes people like Sean Hannity and Mark Levin.

Summary

I know there are other candidates but I had (and expect you have too) only so much patience for these ponderings. I mean Gary Johnson should just endorse Ron Paul and save some time and money. It looks like Herman Cain needs to save his marriage not the country (anyway, as the German’s would say nein, nein, nein!). Tim Pawlenty dropped out; this was a pity, as few knew he had entered.

For those waiting for my endorsement (and I know you are) it is, of course, Ron Paul. I do not really expect him to garner the nomination or win the general election if nominated. While he is on the stage, we at least have some debate over ideas, compared to the more of the same-old-same-old with the other candidates.

Sadly, if the Republicans run Ron Paul as the candidate and lose they will learn the lesson to never run such a candidate again. If they run an establishment candidate and lose they will, naturally, ignore that lesson and instead concentrate on minority or Hispanic outreach.

Many believe Obama will be easy to defeat in 2012. I am not so sure. It is true that the economy is bad, but both parties can take the blame for that. A Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney would not excite either the Republican base or undecided voters. While the glow is off Saint Obama, many might decide to stick with what they know.

A Ron Paul versus Obama debate would offer a stark contrast of visions. While that would frighten the establishment, it might frighten the voters even more. A Romney/Obama match up would probably be most comfortable for all.

Like most of the polls, I can state with 95 percent confidence, plus or minus two percent that I expect one of the candidates to win. With 100 percent confidence, I can state it will make little difference. Still, listening to the debates while I do other things can pass the time.

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8 Responses to “The Republican Primary”

  1. PA Says:

    Ron Paul’s “Muslims/gays” dig at Michelle Bachmann cemented it for me. I’m voting for Bachmann in the primaries.
    [DU: I did not hear the comment you allude to, however it does not surprise me. Paul, like many libertarian leaning types, can be naïve regarding issues of identity and racial and ethnic differences. Bachmann may well go the other direction, been a little too willing to indulge in holy war.

    PS: I like your history/description of the alt-Right given at IMF (linked from OneSTDV's).]

  2. PA Says:

    Thanks! the Buchanan-Paglia synthesis seems to be at the heart of the Alt-Right, sometimes a faultline within the movement as well, and probably the most viable way of moving forward, don’t you think?

    On that note, this is why guys with broad interests, the “containing multitudes” types who often contradict themselves, like Ferd and a few others, are so valuable.

    Serious WN-types are somethign of their foil, but no less valuable for it. I find their despair somewhat repellent — and contagious — but someone has to hold the line when others of us go wobbly on race, immigraiton, etc. Also, as bete-noirs on the far right, they let the more “moderate” bloggers come across as “reasonable” or “acceptable” to the larger audiences.

    By the way, your answer to my question about M-B earlier was appreciated, thanks.
    [DU: You are welcome.

    I am not entirely sure I would consider Ferd part of the alt-right. While he expresses dissatisfactions common to the alt-right and may have arisen from it, I am not sure he is truly part of it. You could consider many In Male Fide contributers part of the alt-right, I am not sure that Ferd's own anarcho/nihilism really fits. Ferd seems like the polite version of Advocatus Diaboli, and I would not count AD as part of alt-right (or any strain of normal discourse).

    However, if Keith Preston (who seems to favor some form of anarcho-nationalism) counts as alt-right, then perhaps Ferd should be considered part of the group as well.]

  3. PA Says:

    I always got the vibe that Ferd’s anarcho/nihilism is a front for the same dissatisfactions that OneSTDV, Auster, Sailer, and all the others express. His thing is somewhat like Roissy’s. Ferd comes down on stupidity while Roissy comes down on betas.

    AD is a whole different creature. I still entertain a suspicion that he is an invented character. Nonetheless, his only overlap wiht alt-Right is his anti-feminism, and cynicism about traditional institutions. On all other subjects he is either incoherent (he hated the elites, but owes his American residency to them), or just vile (advocating the murder of children.)

    BTW, any insight into Tupac Chopra’s disappearance?
    [DU: Perhaps Tupac eloped with Alias Clio...]

  4. chic noir Says:

    Alias Clio got married. She came back to Roissys after a 9 month hiatus and was promptly insulted by a group of bitter betas. I think after Clio left, Tupac lost his heart for the game blogs. I know I don’t have much heart for them anymore myself.
    [DU: I suppose it is easy to burn out on game blogs. I am not sure the regulars at Roissy (excuse me, Heartiste) are the same as I remember. I do sometimes check in (and coincidently left my first comment in ages today) but see fewer names I recognize.]

  5. chic noir Says:

    Well how is the traffic on the AIR article? Has it picked up in the last couple of days?
    [DU: Strange you should mention it but I did notice it in the top posts of the past week panel.]

  6. chic noir Says:

    I wonder how that happened.

    *looks around innocently*
    [DU: Thanks for whatever publicity you may (or may not - we must maintain plausible deniability) have given me.]

  7. chic noir Says:

    Merry xmas and the publicity was my xmas gift to you.
    [DU: *Chic Noir dons red suit and chortles Ho Ho Ho Merrrry Christmas*]

  8. niccolo and donkey Says:

    The fix is in for Romney. Schlafly best summed up the nomination process as it is now by describing it as a “reality show”. Thus far Romney has survived all the attacks.

    Some comments/analysis over at my place. Feel free to contribute your thoughts:

    http://www.saloforum.com/index.php?threads/the-2012-gop-primary-who-will-win.1828/
    [DU: A reality show indeed. Perhaps the Republicans could raise money with a call in number and make explicit the corporate sponsorship (“These debates are brought to you by General Dynamics”)

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